Tianfeng Securities: The outbreak of the core target of the Tesla M3 heavy-duty industrial chain is imminent

Depth[Xu Sheng shares]Tesla M3 heavy volume, promote the industry glory Author Tianfeng Motor Deng Xue team Tesla China factory is in sight, as its core industry chain standard, the company’s revenue accounted for more than 50%, net profit contribution exceeded60%, the purest beneficiary of A shares.

  Because the Air Force’s Model 3 production was far below expectations, the company’s performance growth was lower than market expectations.

The current Tesla production line situation has gradually improved. The Model 3 weekly production capacity reached 2020 units at the end of the first quarter and is expected to increase to 6,000 units at the end of the second quarter. The expected output is 180,000 units, which will make the company’s performance extremely flexible.

  Abstract New energy automotive parts expert, Tesla core supplier.

The company’s main products include aluminum die-casting precision automobile parts and industrial parts, which are mainly used in the new energy automobile industry and other machinery manufacturing industries.

The company’s operating income for 2015-2017 was 3.

5, 5.

7, 7.

4 ppm, an annual increase of 87%, 62%, 30%; net profit attributable to mothers is 0.

8, 2.

0, 2.

200 million yuan, an annual increase of 135%, 153%, 9%.

Benefiting from binding Tesla, the company’s automotive products grew particularly rapidly, growing by 295%, 108%, and 39%, respectively.

Among them, Tesla’s revenue accounted for over 50% in 2015 and 57% in 2017.

  Tesla has the highest breakthrough capacity, and the Model 3 capacity will be released soon.

Under the good reputation of Model S and Model X, Tesla has accumulated a large number of loyal customers and potential buyers, and the new model Model 3 has over 400,000 conversion orders.

Subject to production line commissioning and other issues, only 1,770 Model 3s were produced in 2017.

Today, Model 3 production capacity has climbed rapidly, with production of 9,766 units in Q1 2018, of which the production capacity has climbed to 2020 units at the end of the first quarter.

We expect Model3 weekly production capacity to reach 5,000 to 6,000 vehicles by the end of the second quarter, which will drive over 180,000 vehicles.

  Combining Tesla’s performance again in the spring, standing at the height of the industry to welcome the new energy era.

The company has continuously infiltrated since cooperating with Tesla in 2013. It has successively obtained supporting rights such as battery pack casing, transmission case, transmission suspension, etc., and has continuously penetrated into the S-type and X-type supply chain models, and has gradually become a Tesla purchaseCore suppliers whose cost accounts for over 1%.

In the process, the company’s average bicycle value for Tesla continued to rise, from about 680 yuan in 2014 to about 3700 yuan in 2016.

With the rapid climb of Model 3 production capacity, the company is expected to increase its performance from two aspects: 1) Revenue growth and growth: In addition to the original products, the company also provides new products such as inverter end covers for Model 3, and we expect Model 3 bicyclesThe value is about 3,000 yuan, and it is expected to add about 5 to the company in 2018.

400 million revenue.

2) Profit margin recovery: As the production capacity of Model 3 in 2017 was much lower than the expected 90,000 units, more new production capacity of the company was idle, with a gross profit margin of 49 in 2016Q4.

7% is about 39 in 2018Q1.

8%.

In the future, as Model 3’s production capacity climbs rapidly, the company’s output increase will follow, and the gross profit margin is expected to gradually recover.

In addition, under the general trend of new energy of automobiles, the lightweight preparation of new energy vehicles has attracted attention. As a leader in the field of precision aluminum alloy 北京桑拿洗浴保健 auto parts, the company is expected to take advantage of Tesla to enjoy industrial dividends.

  The IPO project is about to go into production, and we plan ahead to accelerate the deployment of new products.

At present, the company’s first, second, and third factories have all reached capacity, and the fourth factory of the IPO fund-raising project is also expected to reach capacity this year, with accumulated capacity.

In addition, the company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise 4.

2 trillion pounds of connecting rods, torsion arms, knuckle arms, hem arms and other new product research and development and expansion, gradually develop business channels and product categories, and increase performance.

  Investment suggestion: The company is constraining Tesla to obtain ultra-high bicycle value and gross profit 武汉夜网论坛 margin, Model 3 will be released soon, and the performance will be flexible; under the environment of lightweight new energy, the company is expected to rapidly expand the market under the name of Tesla; plan to issue4.

The US $ 200 million convertible bond is used for new product development and expansion, which is expected to increase the value of supporting bicycles and increase the company’s performance in the future.

It is estimated that the company’s net profit from 2018 to 2020 will be about 5.

1, 7.

0, 6.700 million, EPS is 1.

04, 1.

43,1.

68 yuan / share.

Covered for the first time and given a “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: Model 3 sales are lower than expected, customer expansion is lower than expected, exchange rate changes, etc.

  Text 1: Tesla is a Tier 1 supplier of new energy vehicle parts, a leader in new energy vehicle lightweighting.

The company mainly researches and develops, produces and sells precision aluminum alloy automotive parts and industrial parts that are manually die-casting. The products are mainly new and new energy automobile industry and other machinery manufacturing industries. The main products include aluminum die-casting precision automotive parts and industrial parts.
Since 2013, the company has seized the development potential of new energy vehicles, devoted itself to the development and production of core system components such as power systems, transmission systems, and battery systems of new energy vehicles, and has achieved a number of skills in key components such as gearboxes and batteries.And technological breakthroughs, by 2016 new energy automobile parts have become the company’s main products.

The company has advanced lightweight new energy vehicle parts design and R & D capabilities, and has become a Tier 1 supplier for Tesla, and has cooperated with integrated new energy vehicle companies.

  Customer resources are high-quality, tied to the new energy vehicle benchmark Tesla.

The company’s main customers are Tesla, Shanghai Air Thermal Pump Co., Ltd., Haitian Plastic Machinery Group Co., Ltd., AmTech International, Karcher Clean Technology (Changshu) Co., Ltd.

From 14-17, the company’s combined total of the first five customers accounted for 68 of the current period’s main business revenue.

0%, 78.

4%, 77.

6% and 74.

6%, which is relatively stable in the proportion of main business income, but the range of ranking changes.

Among them, Tesla became the company’s largest customer in 2015, and the company set it to 1 in 15-17.

700 million, 3.

200 million, 4.

100 million yuan, accounting for 50% of revenue.

3%, 56.

6%, 56.

5%.

  Export business has become dominant, and automotive products have grown rapidly.

The company’s main domestic sales area is Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the main foreign sales area is North America. In 14-17, the export business increased rapidly from 29% to 77%.

The company’s main business income accounts for more than 98% of its operating income. Sales of automotive and industrial products are the company’s main source of income.

Benefiting from binding Tesla, the company’s sales of automotive products increased particularly rapidly, rising from 25% in 2014 to 74% in 2017.

  The company’s equity structure is concentrated, and the funds raised are mainly used for capacity expansion.

The company raised funds in an initial public offering4.

US $ 2.7 billion, which is mainly used for capacity expansion in new energy automobile parts and other areas, and the construction of R & D centers. Currently, three plants are in full production and four plants are under construction.

Xu Xudong is the actual controller of the company and directly holds the company19.

3% of the shares, and through the control of Xu Sheng Holdings, Xuri Industrial indirectly holds the company 57.

9% of the shares held a total of 77 companies.

2% equity.

  The company’s revenue has grown strongly and its profit margin is at a high level.

From 2015 to 2017, the company’s operating income maintained a strong growth trend, with revenues of 3 respectively.

500 million, 5.

700 million, 7.

400 million yuan, achieving 86.5%, 62.

3%, 29.

8% growth; corresponding net profit is 0.

800 million, 2.

0 billion, 2.

200 million yuan, net profit growth was 134.

9%, 152.

9%, 9.

1%.

Among them, the sales revenue of automotive products is particularly rapid, which is the company’s new profit growth point. The sales revenue of automotive products increased by 294 annually in 15-17.

7%, 108.

3%, 39.

3%.

Benefiting from the high added value of supporting Tesla products, the company’s gross profit margin was 14-30 years.

5% rose to 44 in 17 years.

0%.

Among them, due to the substantial increase in upstream raw material costs and management expense ratios, the company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin in 2017 decreased by 5 respectively.

0 innovations and 5.

7 averages.

  2. Binding Tesla to usher in the new era of automotive energy 2.

1.
Tesla is gaining momentum Model 3 orders are being released soon, and excellent performance has helped Tesla gain market recognition.

Tesla ‘s first-generation sports car is positioned in the sports car market, and its output is small, so the social response is small. The second-generation model, Model S, is positioned in the mid-to-high-end market.With an endurance of about 500 kilometers in 2012, far exceeding the peak value at that time, it can basically meet the car needs of distance and time for modern urban people; its acceleration time of about 100 kilometers is about 3-5 seconds, which can provide consumers beyond traditional carsThe super-strong power of the Model S is even very competitive with traditional fuel luxury cars.

Its rising sales volume also confirms this year, from 1Q14 to 4Q17, the Tesla axis vector rose from 6,457 to 29,870, with an average length of 9 in a single quarter.

4%; operating income from 6.

$ 200 million to 32.

USD 900 million, with an average growth rate of 10 in a single quarter.

3%.

  Model 3 is cost-effective and attracts order.

Under the good reputation of Model S and Model X, Tesla has accumulated a large number of loyal users and potential buyers.

Model 3 is priced in the mid-range market, providing potential buyers with the opportunity to buy Tesla at a low price. Compared to the previous two models, Model 3 has the potential to become a popular model.

Moreover, whether it is a traditional mid-range luxury car or a competitive new energy vehicle, the Model 3 has outstanding performance, high cost performance, and high competitiveness.

  Type 3 production capacity continues to climb and is expected to exceed 180,000 vehicles.

In 2017, the production of Model 3 was less than expected, only 1770 vehicles were produced, but with the continuous solution of production capacity problems, it was greatly improved.

According to official Tesla data, the Model 3 produced 9,766 vehicles in 2018Q1, of which the production capacity has climbed to 2020 at the end of the first quarter.

We expect the Model 3 production to continue to climb in the future. In the last week of 2018Q2, production is expected to reach 5,000-6,000 units, and the expected output is 180,000 units.

  2.

2.Gradually bind Tesla company to thrive The company has significant advantages in advance, and gradually bind Tesla.

In early June 2013, Tesla, which was in the early stages of development (at that time the annual output was limited to 20,000 vehicles), looked for excellent suppliers around the world.

The company seized the possibility and cooperated with Tesla for the first time to obtain the right to match a component in Tesla’s battery cooling system.
Since then, the company has continuously penetrated into Tesla and successively obtained supporting rights such as battery pack casing, transmission case, and transmission suspension, and successfully entered the supply chain of Model S, Model X and Model 3.
  Focus on Tesla, gain trust and orders.

Tesla’s purchasing habits are different from those of traditional OEMs. The single purchase volume is much lower than that of ordinary OEMs, and each time they have higher requirements on delivery time, quality requirements and technical level.

Therefore, when many large auto parts manufacturers take Tesla’s orders, there are often situations where the response is not timely and the demand is small, resulting in insufficient technology research and development.

In contrast, due to the small size of the company at the beginning, the company attaches great importance to Tesla’s business and takes full advantage of the advantages of small and medium-sized enterprises in substitution. It has better satisfaction in research and development, product quality, and timely delivery.Tesla’s request.

From 2014 to 2016, Tesla’s types of parts purchased by the company continued to increase, and the amount of single orders placed became larger, especially since the supply of gearboxes to Tesla in the second half of 2015.The number of orders above 1 million yuan continued to increase on average, with the number of orders rising from 13 to 44 and the unit price rising from 3.19 million to 6.67 million.

Affected by this, the company’s revenue has increased significantly in recent years, and Tesla contributed revenue from 0.

300 million rose to 3.

200 million US dollars, the proportion of revenue increased from 15% to 57%; of which the sales of Tesla’s automotive products accounted for the company’s total sales of automotive products rose from 56% to 77%, the proportion of sales of mold products from 22% Rose to 77%.

  The company’s performance is constantly improving, and the binding on Tesla is getting longer.

Benefiting from the consistent performance of product quality, research and development strength, and supply speed, the company and Tesla have deepened cooperation. The company’s parts supply to Tesla accounts for the proportion of Tesla’s demand (delivery).

From 2014 to 2016, the company’s sales of Tesla to its automotive business cost ratio also changed from zero.

23% rose to 1.

08%, of which the company’s supply of more than 70% of Tesla’s demand for important parts and components increased from 3 to 18, and the corresponding cause was 0.

200 million to 2.

300 million yuan.

The company’s main products sold by Tesla are gearbox suspensions, charger housings, motor end covers, charger end covers, and motor housings based on the transmission suspension and small aluminum frame. By matching calculation, 2016In 2016, the company’s main products accounted for more than 40% of Tesla’s average annual delivery volume, and some products even accounted for more than 110%.

  Tesla’s return on investment is higher than the industry average, and the sustainable cooperation endorses the development of the company.

From 2014 to 2016, the company invested 2,117 in the research and development of Tesla automotive products.

60,000 yuan, gradually creating 4.

800+ billion operating income, the ratio of revenue to research and development costs is 23 times, far exceeding the traditional automotive products, industrial products.

At present, the company’s combined research and development projects mainly include inverter end covers, extended front end covers, engine engine end covers, motor front opening covers, motor inner and outer ring welding parts, etc., which mainly provide Tesla’s built-in foreign new energy vehicle production.Enterprises will support the company’s steady development in the future.

  The model 3 order digestion period is coming, and the company’s performance can be expected.

We expect Model 3 launch volume to start climbing rapidly in the second quarter of this year.

Considering that the Model X and Model S will be co-produced with the Model 3, it is conservatively estimated that the existing Model 3 in-hand orders will initially need to be completed by the end of 2019.

The company continues to infiltrate in cooperation with Tesla. At present, the company’s revenue from Tesla accounts for 1% of the cost of Tesla’s automotive business. It is replaced by the unit price of Tesla’s supporting products. From 2014 to 2016, the companyThe average value of bicycles for Latin America is constantly rising, at approximately RMB 679, RMB 3,246, RMB 3,518.

With the gradual release of huge Model 3 orders in the future, the company’s performance will again meet a period of rapid growth.

  Tesla’s domestic production helped the company rise.

Recently, the three ministries and commissions jointly issued a document saying that the cancellation of special vehicles and restrictions on the external share ratio of new energy vehicles in 2018 will significantly improve the localization process of Tesla.

Taking Model S as an example, Tesla Model S currently has a domestic limit of 730,000 (about 12).

USD 10,000), compared to the US 8.

$ 10,000 in formaldehyde is 50% higher.

Among them, the total import tariff of Model S accounts for about 16%, the excess for about 15%, and the transportation cost for about 3%.

If Tesla is localized, additional expenses such as import tariffs and transportation costs can save about 150,000 yuan. At the same time, new energy vehicles in Beijing, Shanghai and other restricted cities can enjoy free licenses, which will greatly stimulate Tesla’s consumption.

As the company’s core supplier, Tesla will have the advantages of nearby facilities after domestic production, and it is expected to benefit first.

  2.

3.
In the name of Tesla, it enjoys a domestic industry dividend company as a leader in the field, and has strong independent research and development capabilities.

The company has significant technical advantages in the field of new energy automobile parts, and has continuously independently developed a series of production technologies including new energy automobile gearboxes and battery system housings.

At present, the company has 4 invention patents and 60 utility model patents.
In addition, relying on research and development, the company has high technical content for products sold by Tesla and other new energy vehicle customers and has a high net profit margin.

  With the benchmarking company Tesla, the company is expected to expand its wide customer coverage and enjoy industrial dividends.
Tesla’s Model S and Model X are high-end products for electric vehicles with industry benchmark accessories.

Through cooperation with Tesla, the company has accumulated design, research and development, and production technology of new energy vehicle parts, overlapping the commanding heights of die-cast parts in the field of new energy vehicles, and the cooperation with Tesla has laid a foundation for the company to open up the new energy vehicle market.A good foundation.

Under the general trend of lightweight new energy vehicles, more and more OEMs have begun to use aluminum alloy materials, and the company strives to enjoy industry dividends.

  The IPO has ample production capacity, which is one step ahead to cater for the expansion of the three-volume production capacity and caters to the three-volume expansion.

From 2014 to 2017, the company continued to invest and expand production, and its fixed assets rose sharply, respectively.

1.

7, 2.

4 and 5.

100 million yuan.

At present, the company’s first to third plants have all reached production, and the four plants involved in the federal fund-raising project are expected to officially reach production this year, which will add 8.1 million sets of aluminum-magnesium alloy auto parts and 800,000 sets of annual newAnnual production capacity of transmission pumps and housings for energy vehicles.

As the three plants and the fourth plant successively reach capacity, it will ensure that the company closely follows Tesla’s production capacity climb and help the rapid growth of performance.

  Pre-planning ahead of time can help boost new product layouts.

The company issued an announcement in November 2017, intending to publicly issue A-share convertible corporate bonds with a size not exceeding RMB 420 million. The raised funds will be used for new energy automobile precision casting and forging projects. New products are expected to become the company’s new achievements in the future.growth point.

The project construction scale is processing and producing 3.5 million connecting rods / year, 400,000 twisting arms / year, 600,000 steering knuckles and 500,000 swing arms / year.

  Investment suggestion revenue growth assumptions: 1) Automobiles: Tesla Model 3 production continues to climb, with an estimated output of 180,000 vehicles, driving the company’s auto segment business to grow at a high speed of 115%.

  2) Industrial: Industrial products are expanding steadily, with an average annual increase of about 10%.

  At present, these major listed companies in the field of automotive aluminum alloy precision die castings include Guangdong Hongtu, Chunxing Precision and Aikedi; and Tianqi Mo supplies Tesla with mold-related products.

Guangdong Hongtu, Chunxing Precision, Aikedi and Tianqi Mo have a consensus P / E ratio of 11 in 2019.

0, 43.

0, 16.

9 and 20.

0 times.

Xusheng has advanced design and research and development capabilities for lightweight new energy vehicle parts, and has successfully tied Tesla. With the Model 3 volume coming soon, the performance ownership is highly flexible, and it is expected to take advantage of Tesla to enjoy lightweight dividends.

Give the company a certain estimated premium and give it a 30-year PE range in 19 years.

  Risk warning: Tesla sales are lower than expected, Model 3 bikes are less than expected, and orders are less than expected.

  Note: The research report of Tianfeng Securities Research Institute has been publicly released during the report section in this article. For details of the report content and relevant risk warnings, please refer to the full report.

  Securities research report: “Deep research on Xusheng shares with Tesla Model3 to boost performance and welcome the spring again” Published: May 3, 2018 Report issuing agency: Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd. (Securities approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission)) Investment consulting business qualifications) Analyst: Deng Xue, SAC Practice Certificate No .: S1110518010001