Hualu Hengsheng (600426): Q3 results meet expectations, but acetic acid profits rebound

Performance summary: The company achieved operating income of 106 in the first three quarters of 2019.

11 billion, down 2 every year.

19%; realized net profit attributable to mother 19.

6.2 billion, down 24.

58%.

The performance was in line with expectations, and urea and other factors dragged down the single-quarter performance: The January-September performance ranking was mainly due to the high base in the first three quarters of 18.

Looking at Q3 in a single season, although the profits of acetic acid and ethylene glycol have increased significantly, they were dragged down by the decline in the prices of urea, adipic acid and octanol, and Q3’s net profit was 6.

3.0 billion, a molecular weight of 9.

6%, such as the price difference and chain ratio of each product in a single quarter: urea 1206 yuan / ton (-4.

8%), acetic acid 2961 yuan / ton (+19.

73%), cholesterol of 3745 yuan / ton (+4.

06%), adipic acid 2785 yuan / ton (-20.

88%), DMF 1118 yuan / ton (+36.

5%), octanol 1808 yuan / ton (-18.

19%), methanol 1518 yuan / ton (-10.

34%).

Q3 gross margin was 27%, a decrease of 杭州龙凤网 3 units from the previous quarter.

Most of the products are at the bottom of the cycle, and there is little room for profit decline, and the size of the leading faucet has considerable returns: the existing urea is 1,730 yuan / ton, and caprolactam 1.

180 thousand yuan / ton, DMF 5075 yuan / ton, octanol 7550 yuan / ton, basically at the bottom of the industry’s profit, the future downward space is limited.

Cholesterol is 5100 yuan / ton, and acetic acid is 3050 yuan / ton.

Toluene will have a lot of additional production capacity in the future, but the cost gap between coal companies and leading profits are guaranteed; acetic acid will have no additional production capacity by the end of 2020, and the demand side will have about 1,500 tons of PTA capacity.it is good.

The company is a leader in coal chemical industry.无锡夜网 Relying on the advantages of the syngas platform, the company still has considerable excess income during the downturn of various products.

Refined adipic acid quality improvement project, amide and nylon new material upgrade project opens up future development space: the company relies on its existing gasification platform to make full use of synthesis gas resources, combining the company’s existing raw materials such as methanol and ammonia, steam, power and other energy sourcesAdvantages, will develop the cyclohexanone-caprolactam-nylon 6 (polyamide) chip industry chain. After the project is completed and put into operation, it can produce 30 caprolactam inserts (of which 20 inserts are for personal use), 20 formic acid samples, 200,000 tons of nylon 6 chips, sulfurThe ammonium 48 is expected to achieve an average annual operating income of 56.

100 million, total profit 4.

500 million, will further expand the company’s industrial chain and optimize product structure.

At the same time, the company merged and implemented a refined adipic acid quality improvement project, using advanced and mature production technology to build16.

66 statutory / year adipic acid production units. After the project is completed and put into operation, it is expected to achieve an average annual operating income.

9 ppm, total profit 2.

900 million, will further improve corporate profitability.

Earnings forecasts and investment advice.

The EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.

59 yuan, 1.

65 yuan, 1.

74 yuan, corresponding to PE 10X, 10X and 9X, maintaining the “buy” level.

Risk reminder: The price of crude oil plummets, the price of products rises, and the risk of new projects being put into production is less than expected.